Weather Forecasts

Excellent weather forecast information for aviation is available on the web in addition to calling your local Flight Service Station. The web provides access to some outstanding graphical presentations of weather information needed for soaring.

Jack Glendenning's wonderful BLIPMAPS provide the best graphical presentation of the weather forecasts for soaring. There are two types of Blipmap. The Rapid Update Cycle RUCS model has a 20 km horizontal resolution and forecasts out to 24 hours, updated at 3 hr increments plus hourly forecasts out to 3 hours. The newer NAM model has a 12 km horizontal resolution and smaller grid size which improves cloud predictions. The NAM model is intended to provide longer-term forecasts out to 84 hours, but it assimilates new observation data and provides updated forecasts only every 6 hrs giving forecasts in 3 hour increments.

Soundings can be generated from either MAPS or RUCS data at the FSL Soundings site. Enter DSV in place of DEN to get a local sounding for Dansville. The Java tool is useful for understanding the plot.

The Air Sports Net has a nice 3-day aviation weather forecast website designed for the hanglider community but also is ideally suited to the glider community. It provides winds aloft forecasts as well as the usual temperature, winds and cloudbase etc.

Harris Hill has an useful soaring weather web page that summarizes the latest soaring weather for our area using the latest Blipmaps, soundings, etc. The Blipmap forecast also can be projected onto See You maps using secondary programs such as BMapper.

Two excellent seminars on interpretation of weather forecasts for soaring were presented at the 2004 PGA Cross Country Seminar. They are Thermal Soaring Forecasting by Richard Kellerman and "Cross Country Lift Sources" by Ken Kochanski.

Remember to maintain a fair degree of skepticism regarding the reliability of weather forecast; the highest resolution, most reliable, short-term forecast is obtained by looking outside of the cockpit.